Iran: Friend or Foe?

Courtesy: cbc.ca
U.S. military officers in Iraq have recently claimed that Iraqi insurgents have been using Iranian weapons against American troops. President Bush has ordered two aircraft carriers to the Persian Gulf (read story). In 2002, Bush called Iran, North Korea and Iraq an “axis of evil” that threatens world peace.
Iran’s Nuclear History
On April 11, 2006, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, announced that Iran had successfully enriched uranium. He assured the international community that Iranian efforts were strictly for civil power purposes and not for weapons; “our nation is a peaceful nation,” he declared. But Iran’s problematic past might lead the astute student of international relations to think otherwise.
In his book Tehran Rising (see book), Ilan Berman outlines Iran’s expanding nuclear program that now boasts at least eighteen nuclear reactor, research, and weapons facilities. Russia helped Iran start its atomic program, China has sustained it, and N. Korea and Pakistan have assisted it.
With Iraq in ruins, Iran has become the dominant power in the Middle East. It is strategically and quietly expanding its influence across the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and parts of Asia. Iran actively supports numerous terrorist organizations including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine. Iranian leaders feel the need to protect Iran from an American attempt to topple its regime and from the United Kingdom, France, and Israel who have nuclear weapons.
Iran’s Ideological Quest
Alarmingly, Iran’s long-term commitment to “accomplishing an ideological mission, that is, the Jihad for the sake of God, as well as for struggling to open the way for the sovereignty of the Word of God throughout the world” is its most propelling justification for seeking nuclear weapons. Iranian ayatollahs have declared, “Death to the Great Satan, America.” And Iran’s current president Mahmoud Admadinejad has called Israel a “disgraceful blot” that should be “wiped off the face of the earth” (read article). Should the we invade Iran? Should we preemptively destroy its nuclear facilities?
My thoughts: what to do about Iran?
I’m not convinced that Iran would ever attack us with a nuclear weapon. Our massive nuclear force could obliterate all of Iran in minutes. Iran has 2 options: 1) send seemingly “unaffiliated” terrorists to attack us or 2) continue to spread its influence in the Middle-East and advance nuclear weapons programs with the goal of carrying out a large-scale attack on U.S. soil in the distant future. Option 1 is likely, option 2 is highly unlikely given America’s proportionally massive economic and military strength. Iran would have to collaborate with rising powers like China, Russia, and Pakistan to have any chance against us.
If you see Iran as an imminent threat and believe the U.S. should invade, then we have two major problems to consider, one short- and one long-term. We are currently employing most of our military resources in Iraq. We have neither the military force nor the funding necessary to invade Iran. Without re-instating the draft or dramatically raising taxes, our efforts are limited.
Also, modern America lacks sufficient political will to endure long, costly wars, (e.g. Vietnam and Iraq), which weakness is inherent in all democracies. For now, we must wait on Iran. We must remain in Iraq until it is a stable, liberal democracy. In the meantime, we must be prepared to defend our lives, families, religion, and country against any domestic or foreign aggression on our homeland.
What do you think?
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(To read a paper I just wrote on this topic click here)




